Google vs The World

There is a post on Read/WriteWeb about 'The race to beat google'.

Alex and Richard compare the Google Competitors based on their points of differentiation and come to the fairly obvious conclusion that:

So overall, even though there is a lot of activity in the space, it seems like Google will remain the search king for the foreseeable future. Various approaches will have different degrees of success in seizing bits of the market, but to make a serious dent will require time, flawless execution, big marketing dollars and, of course, a better technology. This is not a trivial combination of things.

Alex goes on to say:

...another promising contender (mentioned by Emre) is personalized search. With this technology, search results are going to be organized not by PageRank but by your personal interests. It is likely that a combination of a vertical search and personalized search is going to deliver fundamentally better results than Google, so that might have a chance. However, as we pointed out with the other technologies. Google is not going to sleep through this.

A commenter called Eric, however, hits the nail on the head:

The only way Google is going to be beaten is when the next great paradigm shift in computing comes along. IBM wasn't beaten by another hardware vendor, it was beaten by Microsoft's operating system. Microsoft wasn't beaten by a another
operating system, it's being beaten by the web. It follows then that Google isn't going to be beaten by another search product, it will be beaten by something else.

It stands to reason that if any of these other things prove viable, Google will incorporate it into their own product. Just like Microsoft never plays the innovator with Windows - when you're the leader, you just have to be "good enough" and copy the best ideas from competitors.

The question we should be asking is: what's the next paradigm going to be?

So maybe this is not about beating Google at search, but rather going beyond 'search' and towards a new paradigm that is more useful.

Im surprised that both Alex and Richard did not mention Touchstone or APML in the article when referring to Personalization of results by comparing them against your interests.

I think, however, the next frontier for search specifically is not finding better pages, but better structured data in the form of microformats or other forms of structured data from inside pages (like Blue Organizer, Edgeio, Vast). Again, surprised that Alex didn't mention Blue Organizer or the other - considering he owns it. Maybe he did not want to show bias.

Also, going beyond multiple results at all to return the actual answer. Very much like AskX - now THAT's innovation.

Welcome to 2007

Welcome to 2007. Happy new year!

Let's get straight into it.

Last year (Dec 19 to be exact) the clever people over at Read/Write Web published a list of their Web Predictions for 2007. Here is a very cut down summary with my annotations added in italics. Please note the full version from ReadWrite Web is far richer so make sure you click through and check it out.

RSS, Structured Data

• RSS will go mainstream in a big way next year
  Touchstone will provide a way for the mainstream to more easily understand and consume the value proposition of RSS. Particularly those who don't understand why RSS differs so much from email untill they see it scrolling across their desktop like a ticker or urgent/important headlines SMSed to their phone. Taking the 'RSS' out of the RSS experience will be pivitol.
  
• Structured data will be a big trend next year
  RSS is the most common form of semi-structured data out there. Microformats, however, will begin playing a very important role. A reader that can apply actions based on attached or embedded microformat data will be very useful.
  
• Widgets exploded in 2006 but will continue rising in 2007
  Web widgets are cool. They help create a loosely coupled web experience with functionality exposed all over the place. Desktop widgets, on the other hand, can just be a mess on your desktop. How many widgets can you look at while you work?

Enterprise

• Web Office continues to ramp up
  Touchstone will play a pivotal role in helping knowledge workers get alerts when their web-based office apps have new events/actions that need taking care of. The overflowing enterprise email inbox will not surive the influx of email if web-based office apps send an email for each of their alerts and updates.
  
• The consumerization of the enterprise trend will start to infiltrate corporate IT, in the form of web-based office apps and more collaborative systems.
  The participant (read: user/employee) is the most important part of any system. The fact that the web and web-based sofware is starting to realize this reality is a welcome change. As enterprises begin to catch up, tools that help individuals manage their own attention will become mission critical.

Web Development

• Rich Internet Apps will be a major force in 2007. The general trend going on here is that platforms that leverage both the desktop and the Web will be compelling next year, in terms of offering rich functionality that usually can't be found on purely browser-based apps.
  Exactly right. Ajax is great, but it still can't reach beyond the browser sandbox. Client-side applications will, for the foreseeable future, play a very important role in the mix.
  
• On the other hand, Google in particular will continue to push the boundaries of browser-based apps.
  And yet they continue to build client-side applications as well. Google's only real successes however have been in services that use search/maths as the main value proposition (e.g. web search and email with search). Google has yet to have a real success at anything else including their web-based office apps or their fabled emerging GoogleOS.
  
• Semantic Web products will come of age in 2007.
  Semantic just means structured - and the most important structured format is already here. RSS combined with Microformats make the semantic web an emerging reality. Yet most readers treat RSS like news. Touchstone will force a change.
  
• Expect more big things from Amazon next year, to fill in the stack and to provide the foundation for a Web/Amazon WebServices-based OS.
  

Search and Online Advertising

• Expect some shakeups in the online advertising market next year.
  Maybe engagement will get some real consideration?
  
• Also due to ongoing issues with (CPC/PPC) online advertising, there's a real need for a better, more robust online ad model - perhaps something more than CPA. So watch out for developments in 2007 along those lines.
  
• 2007 will be about Search 2.0 and the rise of the vertical search engines. However don't expect Google to lay down and do nothing - they will counter the verticals.
  Google has already launched their custom search engines which is actually a clever way to get users to tag sites with categories. They can then build vertical searches based on this massive amount of accumulated data. They are using us to build their next killer app. Has anyone else noticed? I'd love to know about posts highlighting this fact - post in comments. They once again use our 'Attention Data' for their master plans. I just wish they were more transparent about it.
  

Microsoft vs Google

• Microsoft's Windows Live services will gain real momentum next year, thanks to Vista and also Live services.
  Surprise, Surprise. Microsoft will always use its platform and tools to drive adoption of their latest round of products and services. They did it with the browser, media player and portals and they will continue to do it for whatever they do next. When you control the keys you control the rooms that people use. You'd do it too if you were in their position.
  
• WebOS /GoogleOS: To counter the Vista and Windows Live threat, Google may come out with some form of GoogleOS.
  Refer to my previous statements about the GoogleOS in this post.
  
• Open Source Desktops will continue to gain momentum in '07.
  Getting a growing number of users while maintaining a consistant share of the overall market is not really a sign of success.
  

Browsers

• Browser War II. In 2007 expect the competition between IE7 and FireFox (plus Flock, Opera and Maxthon) to be intense.
  The browser wars were declared when Microsoft realized that IE can actually be beaten by Firefox and announced their renewed focused on a more aggressive update schedule for Internet Explorer. Expect the war to rage on for the foreseeable future (long past 2007 - think of it like a console war now).
  
• Speaking of browsers, 2007 will see an increase in WebKits. Adobe's Apollo will be WebKit based, enabling developers to ensure Safari compatibility as well as other browsers.
  I am not yet convinced about WebKits and hybrid applications. The web tool vendors want us to believe that web developers can build better client-side apps using web-tools/languages than more traditional platforms like .NET and C. Maybe that's true. Maybe it's not.

Multimedia

• Internet-based TV will ramp up in 2007, thanks to products like Brightcove and whatever Google does with YouTube/Google Video.
  Online distribution of TV/Movies is long overdue. Buying DVDs has been a scam perpetrated on the unsuspecting masses for too long. HD-DVD and BluRay look like they are going to extend the rain of crap for a few years more. All content should be delivered over the Internet and on-demand.
  
• Mass adoption of IPTV technology in 2007 and Bittorrent will be an important part of the online video landscape too.
  IPTV might be dead on arrival. TV over IP (important distinction here) will always be better. It's amazing to me that Bittorrent is not already integrated into browsers and used for distribution of medium to large files. Hopefully 2007 will see that happen.
  
• Virtual worlds: SecondLife will become an important platform for marketing, promotion, and of course social networking.
  Or they will collapse as people realize that they are closed platforms and go in search of more open environments based on technologies analogues to HTML.
  

Consumer Apps

• The online real estate market will grow rapidly in '07.
  
• The search for disruptive business models will continue! :-) In other words, free consumer web apps still need to find a business model.
  Or die trying
  
• While social networks dominated 2006, we wonder if the amount of time an average user spends online will start to negatively impact on their social lives in 2007 and lead to a downturn.
  Tools that make Social networks available on the go will be critical. Messaging inside walled gardens like MySpace will have to give way to more open messaging/forum systems and alert routing technologies (I.e. Touchstone).