I was intending to save this kind of post until the Mueller investigation was over and we gauge Trumps reaction, however I think it’s already obvious...
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I’ve been saying for a while now that, despite my work and career being based on my ability to track trends and roughly predict the future, it’s been impossible to predict geo-politics since brexit and the election of Trump.
But now I feel like some things have become clear, and it’s irresponsible not to share:
The American Dream is very likely over and things are likely to get much, much worse. I say that knowing that many people reading this will think I’m massively exaggerating.
For those not paying attention...
Domestic institutions like the free press, congress and the executive are failing. There is no such thing as objective truth and shared understanding. The Congress is unable or unwilling to perform its function of being a check on executive power. The executive is run by a psychopath with strongman tendencies and his cronies.
Global institutions like the G7 and UN are not far behind. The Trump administration has thrown them under the bus. They were nothing without US power anyway.
And now Trump is using ICE as a loyal law enforcement agency (saw that coming as soon as he gave it extra funding early in his presidency).
The Republican Party now has a cult like allegiance to Trump and the Democrats have no power and no cohesive message or leader.
The population is afraid, uneducated, misinformed and deeply, deeply polarized.
The only thing standing in the way of the news report attached to this post turning into full on Handmaid's Tale is the courts.
I believe there is now an uncomfortably high probability that there will be a full blown constitutional crisis, a hard shift into fascism and/or some kind of inciting incident that turns the culture war into an actual civil war.
Given the flywheel effects that have been building steam for decades, it’s not clear to me right now how the US can be restored within the next few decades. The rest of the world has already started reconfiguring itself to circumvent American leadership and the old post-WW2 geopolitical status quo.
This is a real tragedy for the people who live in the US and for the world.
I sincerely recommend those that can leave to start looking for the exits.